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Forecast Horizon for Automated Safety Actions in Automated Driving Systems


Ayhan Mehmed, Moritz Antlanger , Wilfried Steiner , Sasikumar Punnekkat

Publication Type:

Conference/Workshop Paper


38th International Conference on Computer Safety, Reliability and Security


Future Automated Driving Systems (ADS) will ultimately take over all driving responsibilities from the driver. This will as well include the overall safety goal of avoiding hazards on the road by exe- cuting automated safety actions (ASA). It is the purpose of this paper to address the general properties of the ASA. One property in particu- lar interest is the forecast horizon that defines how early in advance a hazard has to be identified in order to ensure the execution of an ASA. For the estimation of the forecast horizon, we study the fault-tolerant time interval concept defined by the ISO 26262 and extend it for the use case of fail-operational ADS. We then perform a thorough study on all parameters contributing to the forecast horizon, assign exemplary values for each parameter for a running example, and formalize our work by a set of equations. The set of equations are then applied to two specific driving scenarios, and based on the running example values, the fore- cast horizon is estimated. We conclude our work with a summary of the estimated forecast horizon for each of the specific driving scenarios at different road conditions and the recommended road speed limits.


author = {Ayhan Mehmed and Moritz Antlanger and Wilfried Steiner and Sasikumar Punnekkat},
title = {Forecast Horizon for Automated Safety Actions in Automated Driving Systems},
month = {September},
year = {2019},
booktitle = {38th International Conference on Computer Safety, Reliability and Security },
url = {}